The much anticipated 2027 general elections are coming up fast around the corner. The main event is the presidential election, which is expected to hold more than a year from now, but the politicking had been going on for more than a year now.
The political gladiators are back to the trenches and the political drawing boards to strategize on how to win the political jewel – the Presidency.
Out of the plethora of political parties, there are only 4 visible political parties in Nigeria – APC, ADC, PDP and Labour.
The APC:
The ruling APC remains the Party to beat at the 2027 electoral contest. The long time that elapsed in coming up with a viable opposition to the ruling party, afforded President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a guru in political strategy, to convince the opposition PDP Governors to jump ship and join the APC. Before the next general election, the APC might end up with 34 Governors queuing behind its incumbent Presidential candidate. But with Nigerians facing unprecedented and unparalleled economic challenges including inability to afford one meal a day, coupled with unresolvable insecurity, the main question is will the support of political elites enough for President Tinubu to win? Another issue that is resurfacing again, is whether President Tinubu should re-run with Vice President Kashim Shettima or choose a Christian Northerner as a running mate. The Chief MKO Abiola strategy of Muslim-Muslim ticket is the only viable option for President Tinubu. More often than not, Northern Christians always vote for change rather than support the status quo. With physical hunger, poverty and insecurity as well as economic reforms and realities benefiting only the rich and a few, any missteps in choosing the right running mate will certainly cost the APC the presidency.
The ADC:
The top contenders for the Presidency in ADC have impressive records and are well known to Nigerians. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as well as former Governors Peter Obi and Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi are oiling their political machinery to win the hearts and minds of their followers within the ADC. However, the ambition of Atiku to occupy the highest office in Nigeria by being the king maker and the king is drowning out the impact a bottom to top genuine opposition could have made to uproot the current political status quo that has skewed economic dividends towards the powerful, the rich, and those on the corridors of power. While Atiku sees a once-in-a-life time opportunity to upstage President Tinubu due to bad economic indices, especially in the North, the long delay by the opposition to champion a viable alternative, created enough time for President Tinubu to begin his political maneuvering from the South. Tinubu succeeded in getting PDP Governors on his side and ended up building a Southern coalition against a possible Northern coalition plot spearheaded by Atiku. Most Nigerians see Atiku as part of the old political guard that has turned the country into their personal political fiefdom where nothing works and his latest efforts to win the presidency as an attempt to re-capture power. On the flip side of the opposition equation is Obi who is regarded by some Nigerians and mostly the younger generation as an agent of change capable of uprooting the business as usual mantra of governance at all levels.
The hard question is how will the Obidients react to Atiku arrowhead in the ADC presidential campaign instead of Obi who is likely to play a second fiddle or subordinate role in pro-Atiku officialdom? Is anyone but Tinubu a winnable argument against the backdrop of North-South turn-by-turn unwritten Presidential arrangement meaning that the South has to complete another term after late President Muhammadu Buhari completed 8 years in office.
The failure of a visible, viable and pragmatic opposition apparently caused PDP Governors flight to the ruling APC because political actors de taste political vacuum and obviously believe that President Tinubu is not only the guy to beat in 2027, but will also provide the almighty Federal might to support their re-election bids, aka rigging governorship elections for them. This makes the ADC an unlikely destination for the PDP-abandoning Governors.
The failure of Atiku-Obi-Amaechi-David Mark coalition to borrow a leaf from the Buhari-Tinubu idea of coming together with existing political platforms and blocs has created a lack-luster opposition take off. Electronic, print and social media commentaries coupled with hunger in the land, regional and religious considerations alone are not enough to win Nigerian elections. Elections in Nigeria are won and lost less at the ballot boxes and more at the collation centers where the more you look the less you see INEC manipulations come handy.
THE PDP:
The party which at the height of its popularity boasted that it will rule Nigeria for 50 years has shown typically the way the cookie crumbles. The rhetoric by the present PDP officials that the party will spring a surprise in 2027 is just noise because the party lacks the capacity to bring that far-fetched aspiration to fruition. The disintegration of the PDP came in stages. The final act is the spoiler role being played by the FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. The PDP is now a pitiful mess from a once boisterous party looming large over the Nigerian landscape. Wike’s strategy is simple – The PDP should either adopt President Tinubu as candidate or alternatively forget fielding any candidate in 2027. All the latest permutations and attempts to reposition the PDP have probably failed. From working extra hard to draft
former President Goodluck Jonathan and Peter Obi to meeting former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the man who spearheaded the beginning of the disintegration of the PDP by stopping Atiku’s ascendancy to the presidency, have failed to bear any meaningful fruits. The subterranean plans by the Governors of Oyo State Seyi Makinde and Bauchi State Bala Mohammed to run as President and Vice Presidential candidates of PDP in 2027 are unlikely to make any appreciable impact especially with the party exhibiting unprecedented unforced political errors hinged on self-inflicted injurious ambitions.
The exit of Atiku to fledgling ADC instead of staying put and work to bring other parties into the PDP fold hastened the diminishing of a once colossus political party by African standards.
After 2027, it is doubtful if the remaining PDP members will continue to keep head above water.
Labour Party:
Peter “The Rock” Obi personifies the Party. As Obi has now joined the ADC, the fortunes of the Labour Party have dwindled to irrelevance. The Party is now like an orphan and on the throes of death. The Senator Nenadi Usman faction is tied to Obi not minding the recent pronouncements of Party’s former Vice Presidential Nominee Dr. Datti Baba-Ahmed about running for President in 2027. The Barrister Julius Abure faction appears to be working for the ruling APC.
In spite of the political dark room permutations and calculations, the 2027 Presidential election will to a larger extent determine which way for Nigeria. There are three-pronged plausible outcomes after 2027 elections. President Tinubu win will turn Nigeria more or less into a one party country and the status quo remains. If Atiku wins, it will represent the re-capture of power by similar minded political acolytes who are a chip of the status quo political order. If per chance Obi pulls a surprise with the backing of Atiku, it will most likely mark the end of business as usual and the beginning of the re-working and re-energizing the contraption called Nigeria for the benefit and betterment of the generality of the people. The human and natural resource potential of Nigeria is limitless. What is lacking is the will to re-arrange Nigeria from a disorganized to an organized society where corruption is rear and the looting of the commonwealth is punished no matter who is involved. Time is running out to fix Nigeria.
From The Desk Of: Nnamdi
Obieze-Nwadialo Mansfield, Texas.
